Fact Check: Hurricane Milton Is NOT Unique In Forming In Gulf Of Mexico, Tracking East To Florida

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Has a hurricane never before formed in the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Milton's original location, then tracked eastward to Florida? No, that's not true: At least 10 recorded hurricanes including Milton have formed in the Gulf and moved eastward since the 19th century, according to the government's hurricane tracking records. Lead Stories found records of hurricanes following that pattern as far back as 1852. A meteorology expert explained to Lead Stories how hurricanes naturally form in the Gulf then head towards Florida, and that Milton fits this pattern.

A post implying there was something unusual about Milton's origin and movements appeared on X (archived here) on October 6, 2024. It said:

I've been watching storm tracks since the 1980's. # of times I've seen a Hurrican start there and move EASTWARD like this? Zero.

This is what the post looked like at the time of writing:

(Source: X screenshot taken on Mon Oct 7 18:21:10 2024 UTC)

Hurricane tracking records of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show that such storms have originated in the Gulf of Mexico and tracked eastward to make landfall in Florida long before Hurricane Milton. For instance, Hurricane Earl (archived here) in 1998 followed a similar pattern, originating in the Gulf of Mexico and moving east to make landfall in Florida. Earl alone debunks the post's claim that such a hurricane path hasn't happened since the 1980s.

Moreover, at least eight more hurricanes following this pattern were recorded before Earl, with hurricanes grouped by year and then by number before storms began carrying names: 1852 (Number 3), 1859 (Number 8), 1867 (Number 7), 1871 (Numbers 6 and 7), 1873 (Number 3), 1888 (Number 7) and 1935 (Number 7).

Lead Stories created a composite map (archived here) from NOAA's historical hurricane tracks map, regrouping nine recorded hurricanes preceding Milton that started in the Gulf then made landfall in Florida:

(Source: coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map screenshot taken on Tue Oct 8 12:32:07 2024 UTC)

Lead Stories contacted NOAA regarding the claim. Neal M. Dorst, a meteorologist with the Hurricane Research Division at NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, provided us with the following statement:

While it is unusual for hurricanes to form in the Gulf of Mexico then strike Florida, it has happened.

Since 1851 (when the official record maintained by NHC begins) there have been nine recorded

storms that have done this. No doubt there have been more in the past which were not recorded.

Late in the hurricane season (October-November) tropical cyclones can still form over the warm

waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea. At that time of year, many midlatitude

troughs (cold fronts) will dip further south creating a wind flow over the Gulf from southwest to

northeast. This wind flow will push any tropical disturbances in the Gulf over Florida. Milton

fits in this scenario as a trough moving down from the United States is expected to move the

hurricane from north of the Yucatan Peninsula over western Florida.

The claim appears to hint at possible weather manipulation. Lead Stories has previously fact checked several claims related to Hurricane Helene, including whether hurricanes can be directed to a specific location, that a patent application proved that Helene was created artificially and that NEXRAD, HAARP and Doppler radars can control the weather and direct hurricanes.

Additional Lead Stories fact checks on claims concerning hurricanes can be found here. Additional Lead Stories fact checks on claims concerning weather control can be found here.