Are California and Colorado at the top of the list of states losing population as more people leave than move there? No, that's not true: The latest statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau show that California lost population in 2020 and 2021, the first two years of the Covid pandemic. The negative trend reversed and the state gained residents in 2023 and 2024. Colorado's population increased steadily from 2020 to 2024. President Trump's claim that both states were big losers is based on an unscientific report from a moving company that is not confirmed by any other data.
The claim appeared in a post (archived here) published by the @realDonaldTrump Truth Social account on December 31, 2025. The text caption read:
California and Colorado are two of the TOP OUTBOUND STATES IN 2025 (United Van Lines!) - In other words, PEOPLE LEAVING!!! That's what bad governors do to even places blessed with beautiful surrounds and climate. President DJT
This is what the post looked like at the time of writing:
(Image source: Lead Stories screenshot of Truth Social)
President Trump's claim is based on the 2025 National Movers Study (archived here), compiled and released by United Van Lines, based on how many families they move each year into and out of states. The rankings of top outbound and top inbound are based on the ratio of shipments coming in versus shipments going out of a state. The theory is that states with the higher number of outbound shipments compared to inbound are losing residents.
In the case of California, United Van Lines shipped 2,667 more households out than were shipped in. California's population is 39,663,800, according to the latest census report. If it is assumed that each of the 2,667 shipments represented four people leaving California, that would total 10,668 residents moving out. This would represent a tiny 0.0269% population loss.
The report said Colorado had 661 more household shipments leaving the state than entering in 2025. Colorado's population is 6,013,650, according to the latest census report. If it is assumed that each of the 661 shipments represented four people leaving Colorado, that would total 2,644 residents moving out. This would represent only a 0.0444% population loss.
Government leaders normally rely on the U.S. Census Bureau for statistics about interstate migration, not a United Van Lines marketing tool.
Lead Stories analyzed the latest census report (archived here) on this topic, titled "State Population Totals and Components of Change: 2020-2024," which included a spreadsheet you can download here (archived here) that contained data on five years, starting in 2020, of interstate migration in the United States.
Contrary to the claim by President Trump and United Van Lines, California was not at the top of the list of population losers, but in fact just third from the top in winners of new residents in 2023-2024. The state gained 232,570 residents, topped only by Texas and Florida.
A Lead Stories analysis of the spreadsheet showed that California did lose residents during the first two years of the Covid pandemic, but the trend reversed starting in 2022. The state was still 0.31% shy of its pre-Covid population number in July 2024.
(Image source: Lead Stories chart based on US Census stats)
The spreadsheet analysis showed Colorado gained residents in each of the last five years reported by the Census Bureau, despite the pandemic.
(Image source: Lead Stories chart based on US Census stats)
