Will Social Security run out of money for payouts to be made starting June 1, 2025? No, that's not true: This claim was made on social media without basis: no official document cited, no link to expert analysis, no financial records, just a naked assertion. The Social Security Trust Fund, from which benefits are paid, was solvent on the day the claim was made and there was no announced cancellation of 2025 payouts. Private organizations that monitor Social Security, as well as the Social Security Administration itself, have said that the current system, with no changes, is fully funded for 10 years past the year of this claim. And even if no changes are made, the system could still pay more than two-thirds of its obligations after 2035.
The claim appeared in a November 6, 2024, post on Threads. It said:
I have put into social security for 55 years and I am supposed to start collecting on June 1st, and now it is gone. We will probably have to sell our house while it still has some value😥
This is what the claim looked like on Threads at the time of writing:
(Source: Threads screenshot taken on Fri Dec 13 21:20 2024 UTC)
There is no evidence-based, credible information about Social Security that buttresses the claim that Social Security is "gone" and will not make June 2025 benefit payments.
Social Security Administration
A month before the claim was published, Social Security Commissioner Martin O'Malley appeared on WGN9, (archived here) a Chicago news channel, and said "Social Security is not going broke." Congress can adjust taxes and other factors to cover the bulge in demand caused by the baby boom generation, he said, and even in a politically divided time Social Security is still supported by 80 percent of American voters, which would make congressional extinction of Social Security unpopular with voters.
Congressional Budget Office
The nonpartisan research staff of Congress published on August 2024 a study of the long-term health of the Social Security Trust Fund (archived here) and the tax collections that pay for benefits checks. There is nothing in the report that says Social Security's funds are gone, nor that checks expected in June 2025 won't be paid out. While Congress' investigators estimate the trust fund would be exhausted by 2024, Social Security tax payments would keep benefits flowing, though at reduced amounts.
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
The nonpartisan research group, which focuses on benefits programs for working Americans, said claims about the demise of Social Security are misrepresentations of population and income projections. The Center describes the 2034 exhaustion of the trust fund as follows: "Social Security Needs Shoring Up but Will Not Go 'Bankrupt.'" The Center's July 24, 2024, report on the program's financial health says that while the Trust Fund will be drained by 2035, Congress has a range of ways it can prevent reductions in benefits. That report is archived here. Even if Congress fails to act, the Center found, benefits will continue, though at reduced levels, if only financed by the existing Social Security tax collections.
American Association of Retired Persons (AARP)
Focused on Americans age 50 and older, AARP lobbies Congress on behalf of a claimed 38 million members. AARP analysts wrote in a July 2024 report that Social Security is primarily funded by payroll taxes paid by working Americans. Until 2021, the report (archived here) notes, Social Security collected more in payroll taxes than it paid out, which built the Social Security Trust Fund. AARP analysts also calculate that fund will be drained in 2034 and that payroll taxes would, if all things remain unchanged, only cover about 80 percent of benefits. AARP is lobbying Congress to take numerous steps to shore up Social Security after 2034, such as eliminating the payroll tax cap on higher earners, tapping other federal funds, raising the age for full retirement and changing other elements of Social Security.
Other Lead Stories fact checks concerning Social Security can be found here.
